BlackRock Gold @ 1202p

GOLD closed the week LOWER at $1112, down $3 on the weeek after peaking at $1227 on 3rd December. Gold's strong period (over 5 weeks) is coming up between 21st December and 25th January.

GOLD needs to hold above $1070-$1100 or a retest of $1000 is likely.

Another 18% rise from the recent low gives a target price $1300.

Gold stocks (HUI) 430 hit a low of 419 on Friday 18th December. The Gold stocks have risen from 377 (30Oct) to 516 (2Dec). The pullbacks have been getting stronger. 10% 450-395 (17Sep-02Oct), 15% 460-377 (14Oct-28Oct) and 18% 516-419 (2Dec-18Dec). A close above daily 50ema (444) will be the trigger to add to the fund for the next move up.

The long term momentum is still UP. A warning sign would be a break of the Weekly 50ema (365) and a failure to make a NEW HIGH within the next 45 days (9 weeks). HUI needs to break (515) by Wednesday 3rd Feb 2010. 10ema (445) < 50ema (365) would be the signal to Sell Gold stocks.

The Blackrock Gold fund peaked on 3Dec at 1359p. With a 2% rise in Gold stocks on Friday, Blackrock Gold should be trading around 1220p on Monday. If the Gold price were to fall to $1050 (down 5%) , then the Gold stocks have a further 10%  to fall implying a fund price of 1100p by 14th Jan 2010.GOLD seasonally moves up to a HIGH in late Jan. looking for a retest of $1200, with target price of $1300 sometime in the Q1 2010. If GOLD hits $1300, GOLD stocks should be up another 33% from here. Look to sell in late Jan/Feb around 1460p.