Saturday, 3 March 2018

DAX market exit triggered

The German DAX 11,913 is on a medium term sell signal now with 3 weeks below the long term 50ema. (12656).  Down side target is 10500 within the next few months. Only weekly close above 12600 will trigger going long.

SP500 forward earnings of $160 gives a long term average p/e (15) fair market price of 2400, more than 10% below the current price 2691. At the moment the forward p/e is 17

Only Japan is showing a forward p/e  (14) below the Long term average (15). Nikk225 needs to close weekly above 22500 to go long.

The FTSE250 at 19386 and forward earnings of 815 is on a p/e (23.8) Long term cape (20) implies the mid cap FTSE is still 19% above fair value!

Stock Allocation 47%

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