Thursday, 1 July 2010

FTSE 4917 looking very weak

8 months ago (11th September 2009) the FTSE closed above 5000 on a Weekly basis for the first time since the low 3462 in March 2009. Only once did it close below 5000 - week ending 2nd October 4988. A weekly close below 5000 is very BEARISH, with the FTSE only able to close above the Weekly 50ema (5186) once in the last 6 weeks. The last time this happened was in late 2007. The FTSE then continued to fall for the next 18 months dropping nearly 50%. Similar price and time action would indicate a target FTSE 2800 by Nov 2011.

30Min - SELL
Using the 30min Charts the 10ema(4923) < 20ema(4935) < 50ema (4980) are STILL on SELL signal. A break above 20ema(4935) and close for 2 periods (i.e one hour) will be the first sign that the BULLS are back. BEARS target will be 4835 today, calculated by taking the Day Low (4899) - (Day High (4962) - Day Low (4899))

Daily - SELL
The 10ema(5072) < 20ema(5127) < 50ema (5239). A break and close above 20ema(5127) will be required to switch to LONG trades on a WEEKLY basis.

Weekly - NEUTRAL The 10ema(5241) < 20ema(5303) > 50ema (5186) will be indicating a SELL signal if the Market closes below 5000. A break and close above 20ema(5303) will be required to switch to LONG trades on a MONTHLY basis.

Currently SHORT FTSE 5270 Stop 4980

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