GOLD $1193 Breaking down

GOLD break below support at $1185 next week would be NEGATIVE sending GOLD down to support at $1140-$1160  seen in Jan High and April High respectively. Upside resistance at $1220. Downside target would be $1000-$1050 level

BULL Case
10 week pullback similar to the Dec09 ($1210) to Feb10 ($1050) would see GOLD fall another 9% to target $1090 by start of September

BEAR Case
18 week pullback similar to July08 ($1000) to Nov08 ($700) would see GOLD fall another 20% to target $950 by  start of November.

GOLD STOCKS

GOLD stocks has measured by $HUI (444) failed to close above 490 in May and June. Break down below 460 has triggered a move down to support at 420-430, another 5% down


BULL Case
10 week pullback similar to the Dec09 (500) to Feb10 (375) would see stocks fall 16% by  September


BEAR Case
18 week pullback similar to July08 (475) to Nov08 (150) would see stocks fall another 60% by Autumn.