GOLD break above $1200 required by BULLS

GOLD is struggling to break above $1200 with 50ema($1197) acting as resistance. GOLD found support at $1160-April High. August is a weak month for GOLD. A further move down to $1140 over the next few weeks is possible

BULL Case
10 week pullback similar to the Dec09 ($1210) to Feb10 ($1050) would see GOLD fall another 9% to target $1100 by start of September

BEAR Case
18 week pullback similar to July08 ($1000) to Nov08 ($700) would see GOLD fall another 20% to target $950 by start of November. 2 weeks close below Weekly 50ema($1125) will be signal to short GOLD

GOLD STOCKS

GOLD stocks as measured by $HUI (455) failed to close above 500 in May and June. Break down below 460 triggered a move down to support at 430. BEARS will look for a close below 430 to signal a retrace back to FEB low at 375.


BULL Case
10 week pullback similar to the Dec09 - Feb10 would see Gold stocks fall another 5-10% by 30th August to 400-420, before moving up to a New High by late November around 550.


BEAR Case
18 week pullback similar to July08 (475) to Nov08 (150) would see stocks fall another 50% by 25th October. Two weeks close below weekly 50ema(428) will be the indicator to short GOLD stocks.