Wednesday, 17 February 2016

Long term sell signals


FTSE
The FTSE triggered a long term sell signal at 6720 in September 2014 and again at 6800 in July 2015. Previous long term sell signals have lasted 31 months from Oct 2000 6400 to May 2003 4000 and 19 months from Dec 2007 6412 to July 2009 4390.  

Both previous falls have been on average 34%. 

If a similar move is seen in 2016/2017, the next buy signal will be 4500 by July 2017 with an extreme low 25% below at 3775 by March 2017

SP500
The SP500 triggered a long term sell signal at 2062 in Aug 2015 and again at 2044 in Dec 2015. Previous long term sell signals have lasted 31 months from September 2000 1440 to April 2003 905 and 19 months from Dec 2007 1474 to July 2009 936.  

Both previous falls have been on average 37%. 

If a similar move is seen in 2016/2017, the next buy signal will be 1300 by July 2017 with an extreme low 30% below at 910 by March 2017

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